Analisis Tren dan Perkiraan Pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia Menggunakan Peramalan Metode Prophet :Sebelum dan Sesudah Aturan New Normal

Penulis

Mawaddah Harahap, Ahmad Zaki Andika, Amir Mahmud Husein, Abdi Dharma

Abstrak

Dalam menanggulangi penyebaran pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia, pemerintah telah menetapkan PSBB dan aturan Normal Baru namun laju penyebaran pandemi terus meningkat dari waktu ke waktu. Selain itu, ketidakpastian akan berakhirnya pandemi ini berdampak pada perubahan kondisi sosial. Makalah ini bertujuan untuk memfasilitasi perbandingan antara PSBB dan regulasi New Normal tentang perkembangan jumlah kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia dengan memetakan jumlah kumulatif kasus (kasus aktif, sembuh, dikonfirmasi dan meninggal). Metode Prophet digunakan untuk memprediksi kasus kematian dan terkonfirmasi dalam 30 hari ke depan. Analisis data visual dengan pendekatan Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) disajikan untuk memberikan pemahaman tentang perkembangan penyebaran pandemi di Indonesia. Pengujian kerangka analisis dilakukan dengan eksperimen untuk mengukur tingkat ketepatan prediksi metode Prophet dengan membagi kumpulan data historis periode 23 Maret 2020 - 31 Juli 2020, sedangkan data bulan terakhir dari kumpulan data periode 01 Agustus 2020 hingga 5 September 2020 digunakan sebagai target prediksi. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian metode Prophet memprediksi Indonesia akan mengalami peningkatan jumlah kasus terkonfirmasi sekitar 238.322 kasus dan kematian sekitar 9.609 hingga akhir September dengan tingkat kesalahan relatif dari estimasi yang dievaluasi dengan MAPE sekitar 23,9%. dan MAE sekitar 73,12 MAE. Hasil analisis visual penyebaran suatu pandemi juga disajikan dengan harapan dapat bermanfaat sebagai wawasan perkembangan jumlah kasus pandemi di Indonesia.

 

Abstract

 

In countering the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia, the government has set PSBB and New Normal rules but the rate of spread of the pandemic continues to increase from time to time. In addition, the uncertainty about the end of this pandemic has resulted in changing social conditions. This paper aims to facilitate a comparison between the PSBB and New Normal regulations on the development of the number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia by mapping the cumulative number of cases (active, cured, confirmed and death cases). The Prophet method is used to predict confirmed cases and deaths within the next 30 days. Visual data analysis using the Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) approach is presented to provide an understanding of the development of the pandemic spread in Indonesia. The testing analysis framework was carried out by experiments to measure the level of prediction accuracy of the prophet method by dividing the historical data set for the period 23 March 2020 - 31 July 2020, while the last month data from the data set for the period 01 August 2020 to 5 September 2020 were used as prediction targets. Based on the results of the Prophet method testing it is estimated that Indonesia will experience an increase in the number of confirmed cases around 238,322 and cases of death around 9,609 until the end of September with the relative error rate of estimates evaluated with MAPE around 23.9% and MAE around 73.12 MAE. The results of a visual analysis of the spread of a pandemic are also presented in the hope that they will be useful as an insight into the development of the number of pandemic cases in Indonesia.


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Referensi


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25126/jtiik.2022914060